The wait for Manchester City is finally over! They completed the treble. Not only did they win the 2022-23 Premier League title and the FA Cup, they also defeated Inter Milan and won the Champions League. It’s been a sweet season for Pep Guardiola and company. Now they head into the new season with much of their squad intact and have their sights set on their fourth consecutive Premier League title and sixth in seven seasons.
If you’ve read my pre-season betting preview Sheffield United
And Luton Town
, Thanks! If not, you can read them by clicking on each team’s name. For those unfamiliar with this summer series, I plan to provide a betting preview on the league’s newcomers and the Premier League’s biggest names. In each article I will try to provide actionable betting information.
Will Manchester City become champions again?
Listen, Manchester City have won the Premier League three years in a row. They have a -140 chance of repeating the Premier League title and frankly if you help them win the league I can’t blame them. I’d rather support them later in the season than give them a winning ticket with a minus sign in front for the next eight months. If I remember correctly it was even +235 at the halfway point of the season last year to win the Premier League. They put on a mighty run, chasing Arsenal to win the league. For those who follow me on twitter, I recommend betting on City to win the double (Premier League and Champions League) for a nice return.
But yes, I believe Manchester City will win the league again this season. They finished last season with the highest goal difference, 15 more than second place. Advanced analytics saw them as a worthy champion and finished with the highest xGD, nearly 15 goals ahead of the second team.
City scored 94 goals and conceded just 33. They led the league in xG and xGA. They played well both at home and away. They were one of three teams to average more than 1.5 points per game away from home. Interestingly, they only had a +13% home field advantage. That was mainly due to how well they played on the street.
City also have Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne. The couple was dynamic. Haaland led the Premier League with 36 goals and De Bruyne led the league with 16 assists. Even outside of those two, they are full of talent all over the field and their team is strong.
According to the current status, they will only lose Ilkay Gündogan this summer. They are ready to win another Premier League title. Personally, I’d rather wait to bet on winning the league should the price drop later in the season, but if you feel like it, bet at -140 to win.
Player to watch
Julian Alvarez – Center Forward
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – MAY 21: Julian Alvarez of Manchester City celebrates after scoring the team’s first goal during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Chelsea FC at Etihad Stadium on May 21, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
I don’t want to spend too much time discussing how great Haaland is. He will likely win the Ballon d’Or this season or before he retires. Let’s talk about Alvarez, basically Haaland’s replacement. The 23-year-old had a memorable season. He was a contributor to a club team that won the treble and he was a crucial member of the Argentina team that won the World Cup. The question is: what’s next for him?
Despite the transfer rumours, Alvarez has confirmed he will stay at City for at least one more season. For us sports bettors, this is enormous. Knowing Guardiola and how tight the City schedule is getting, it’s important to pay attention to when double-match weeks or games where away trips to the Champions League are combined with away trips to the Champions League are taking place. In general, Guardiola likes to rest some of the older players, including De Bruyne and Haaland. He likes to use Alvarez as a striker or as a central midfielder. What I like to do is predict those games and find a sportsbook that will void all player odds for non-starters and bet Alvarez that he will have at least three shots before the starting XI is announced. This was one of the more profitable betting angles and should remain so in the new season.